In 2017, Michael Mandel and I foresaw a “Coming Productivity Boom.” In part through continued rapid innovation in the digital sphere – but also, and especially, because of faster productivity growth in the physical industries, which had been lagging for decades. In the chart above, you can see the yawning productivity gap between the digital and physical industries. We wrote a Wall Street Journal column predicting that “Robots Will Save the Economy.”
Digital innovation was spurred by the Internet, which connected billions of computers and then smartphones. Over three decades, from 1995 to 2025, U.S. communications firms invested $3 trillion building this infrastructure – fiber optic networks, broadband links to homes and offices, mobile towers, and the first generation of cloud data centers. Now, A.I. and robots are finally slated to deliver on the productivity boom promise. In just five or six years (2025-30), U.S. tech firms are planning to invest more than $3 trillion in giant computer warehouses, or A.I. data centers. That’s about five times as much capital intensity as the Internet buildout. Nearly every task, job, firm, and industry will change. The disruptions will be huge. So will the opportunities.
