February 7, 2016

Remember Peak Oil?

Sunday, January 24th, 2016

oil shale quotes 2006 b

During the “energy crisis” of 2006, we wrote the following Wall Street Journal commentary, hoping to calm fears of “peak oil” and other nonsense that often accompanies big price swings. We said oil prices likely would recede. We said vast stores of oil, especially in shale, were about to be found and extracted. We said alternative energy schemes in part justified by high oil prices were a bad idea. We also said a big financial disruption was likely. Continue reading . . .

Moore’s Law: A 50th Anniversary Assessment

Wednesday, April 22nd, 2015

See our celebration of the 50th anniversary of Moore’s Law — “Moore’s Law Exceeded Moore’s Expectations.”

And for a longer treatment, see our 19-page paper — “Moore’s Law: A 50th Anniversary Assessment.”

Is U.S. broadband healthy or not?

Monday, November 24th, 2014

This question is central to the efforts to change the way we regulate the Internet. In a short new paper from the American Enterprise Institute, we look at a simple way to gauge whether the U.S. has in fact fallen behind other nations in coverage, speed, and price . . . and whether consumers enjoy access to content.

Ignorance, the Ultimate Asset

Friday, March 8th, 2013

See our new article “Ignorance, the Ultimate Asset” at The American, the online magazine of the American Enterprise Institute.

Memos to the Future: 2042

Saturday, December 1st, 2012

What would “the New Normal” of a mere 1% per capita GDP growth mean for the American economy over the next few decades?  What if it’s even worse, as many are now predicting? Is there anything we can do about it? If so, what? We address these items in our new article for the Business Horizon Quarterly — “Beyond the New Normal, a New Era of Growth.”

U.S. Internet Growth – Another Way to Visualize

Monday, February 27th, 2012

We’ve published a lot of linear and log-scale line charts of Internet traffic growth. Here’s just another way to visualize what’s been happening since 1990. The first image shows 1990-2004. Continue reading »

What Mobile, Video, Big Data, and Cloud mean for network traffic

Monday, November 21st, 2011

See our new report “Into the Exacloud” . . . including analysis of:

> Why cloud computing requires a major expansion of wireless spectrum and investment

> An exaflood update: what Mobile, Video, Big Data, and Cloud mean for network traffic

> Plus, a new paradigm for online games, Web video, and cloud software

Stay hungry. Stay foolish.

Thursday, October 6th, 2011

Tyler Cowen’s Techno Slump

Saturday, January 29th, 2011

Have we utterly deluded ourselves? Are we in a technological Dark Age? Here is my analysis in Forbes of Tyler Cowen’s new e-book essay The Great Stagnation, which argues we’ve eaten all the low-hanging fruit and maybe we’ll have to settle for less.

World Broadband Comparisons, an update

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

New numbers from Cisco allow us to update our previous comparison of actual Internet usage around the world. We think this is a far more useful metric than the usual “broadband connections per 100 inhabitants” used by the OECD and others to compile the oft-cited world broadband rankings.

What the per capita metric really measures is household size. And because the U.S. has more people in each household than many other nations, we appear worse in those rankings. But as the Phoenix Center has noted, if each OECD nation reached 100% broadband nirvana — i.e., every household in every nation connected — the U.S. would actually fall from 15th to 20th. Residential connections per capita is thus not a very illuminating measure.

But look at the actual Internet traffic generated and consumed in the U.S.

The U.S. far outpaces every other region of the world. Read the rest of this entry »